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Systematic approach to the prediction of the real estate market development
Tauberová, Darina ; Dufek, Zdeněk (referee) ; Suchánek,, Petr (referee) ; Škapa, Stanislav (advisor)
The doctoral thesis deals with the finding of a suitable approach for predicting the development of the residential real estate market, which would also be applicable in the practice of Experts and further develop the appraisal field. It has been found that a delayed multiple linear regression model appears to be appropriate, as confirmed by the verification of this model. The resulting model is also suitable for use in routine Expert practice, thanks to the simplicity of calculation without ownership of any computing program. Expert thanks to the created model is able to predict the development of the real estate market. The result is bound to the accuracy of the input data. All assumptions of regression models have been tested, optimal explanatory variables were selected based on backword regression. The doctoral thesis explains all input data, methods, tests, procedures and detailed modeling.
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Statistic Characteristic Function and its Usage for Digital Signal Processing
Mžourek, Zdeněk ; Mekyska, Jiří (referee) ; Smékal, Zdeněk (advisor)
Aim of this thesis is provide basic information about characteristic function used in statistic and compare its properties with the Fourier transform used in engineering applications. First part of this thesis is theoretical, there are discussed basic concepts, their properties and mutual relations. The second part is devoted to some possible applications, for example normality testing of data or utilization of the characteristic function in independent component analysis. The first chapter describes the introduction to probability theory for the unification of terminology and mentioned concepts will be used to demonstrate the interesting properties of characteristic function. The second chapter describes the Fourier transform, definition of characteristic function and their comparison. The second part of this text is devoted to applications the empirical characteristic function is analyzed as an estimate of the characteristic function of examined data. As an example of application is describe a simple test of normality. The last part deals with more advanced applications of characteristic function for methods such as independent component analysis.
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Selected Parameters Statistical Investigation of Fires Development in the Districts of the Czech Republic in 1997-2017
NOVOTNÁ, Barbora
The diploma thesis "Statistical survey of selected parameters of fire development in the districts of the Czech Republic in 1997-2017" deals with the gaining and evaluation of data of selected parameters on fires in the districts of the Czech Republic in 1997-2017. The amount of fires and the amount of damage associated with these numbers of fires became selected parameters related to individual districts in the mentioned period. The topic of the diploma thesis deals with the field of fires, which can be classified as a class of phenomenon "Segment of emergencies" associated with the theory of "Protection of the population". In the elaborated applied quantitative research, the author evaluated the methodological triangulation (the ratio of the quantity given by the existing theory and the newly processed quality, which means a benefit for the already existing theory) in the proportion of 90:10. The theoretical part defines the basic concepts and areas related to fires, which are based mainly on legislative regulations. This section describes the concept of fire protection and prevention in detail. The last section of this part summarizes the basic methods of descriptive and mathematical statistics, which were used in the processing of the practical part of the thesis. In the practical part of the diploma thesis, three hypotheses are verified. The hypotheses were examined on the basis of obtained and statistically processed data published in the statistical yearbooks of the Fire and Rescue Service of the Czech Republic. For the processing of the practical part, the basic methods of descriptive and mathematical statistics were selected, by which these data are processed. In the methodology are listed statistical methods used. The use of the work consists mainly in the verification of the statistical algorithm for fire investigation, the two-dimensional statistical method can be applied to the problems of emergencies. Another benefit could be the design of follow-up work, which would, for example, deal with other parameters of fires such as fires according to the sector where they occurred, the number of deaths or the number of injuries. Another benefit could be the design of follow-up work, which would, for example, deal with other parameters of fires in individual districts, for example fires by branches, by number of deaths or number of injuries.
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Special issue of the Conference Analytical Methods in Statistics (AMISTAT 2019)
Kalina, Jan ; Jurečková, Jana
IN: Applications of Mathematics. 2020, 65(3), 227-342. ISSN 0862-7940. doi: 10.21136/AM.2020.0106-20. ANNOTATION: This special issue of Applications of Mathematics is devoted to the third workshop on Analytical Methods in Statistics (AMISTAT 2019), which took place in Liberec on September 16–19, 2019. It was organized by the Department of Applied Mathematics at the Faculty of Science, Humanities and Education of the Technical University of Liberec. The workshop was held under the auspices of Miroslav Brzezina, Rector of the Technical University of Liberec.\n
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Application of the Cox regression model with time dependent parameters to unemployment data
Volf, Petr
The contribution deals with the application of statistical survival analysis with the intensity described by a generalized version of Cox regression model with time dependent parameters. A\nmethod of model components non-parametric estimation is recalled, the flexibility of result is assessed with a goodness-of-fit test based on martingale residuals. The application\nconcerns to the real data representing the job opportunities development and reduction, during a given period. The risk of leaving the company is changing in time and depends also on the age of employees and their time with company. Both these covariates are considered and their impact to the risk analyzed.
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Systematic approach to the prediction of the real estate market development
Tauberová, Darina ; Dufek, Zdeněk (referee) ; Suchánek,, Petr (referee) ; Škapa, Stanislav (advisor)
The doctoral thesis deals with the finding of a suitable approach for predicting the development of the residential real estate market, which would also be applicable in the practice of Experts and further develop the appraisal field. It has been found that a delayed multiple linear regression model appears to be appropriate, as confirmed by the verification of this model. The resulting model is also suitable for use in routine Expert practice, thanks to the simplicity of calculation without ownership of any computing program. Expert thanks to the created model is able to predict the development of the real estate market. The result is bound to the accuracy of the input data. All assumptions of regression models have been tested, optimal explanatory variables were selected based on backword regression. The doctoral thesis explains all input data, methods, tests, procedures and detailed modeling.
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Statistic Review of Parameters of Fire Rescue Service's Interventions in Traffic Accidents in South Bohemia
PETRŮV, Josef
Fire Rescue Service is territorialized in each region, which means that Fire Rescue Service is present in each region of the Czech Republic as an individual accounting entity. Each accounting entity is obliged to prepare own budget estimate for next year which serves for covering costs related to interventions. Therefore it is beneficial to have an overview about the number of interventions expected in following year. The prediction of the expected interventions should be based utmost on real data from the the last period. Fire Rescue Service units' interventions in traffic accidents are covered from the state budget as well as other performances. The thesis is concerning the statistic survey related to Fire Rescue Service's interventions in traffic accidents. Specified goals of the thesis: G1) The survey of the development in time of the number of traffic accidents associated with South Bohemia Fire Rescue Service's interventions in traffic accidents within one month as the unit of time during the last 5 years. It is considered as the survey of the first of selected parameters concerning Fire Rescue Service's interventions in traffic accidents in the South Bohemia region. G2) The survey of the development in time of costs associated with South Bohemia Fire Rescue Service's interventions in traffic accidents within one month as the unit of time during the last 5 years. It is considered as the survey of the second of selected parameters related to Fire Rescue Service's interventions in traffic accidents in the South Bohemia region. G3) The comparison of the number of interventions and costs, the investigation of the apportionment of the number of interventions and costs in terms of a proper theoretical apportionment. It is considered as the survey concerning the dependence of selected parameters of Fire Rescue Service's interventions in traffic accidents in the South Bohemia region. With regard to a relativelly high number of primary data (entries from about 8 000 traffic accidents in the time period between 7/2010 and 6/2015 in the South Bohemia region, where was always present at least one unit of the South Bohemia Fire Rescue Service), mathematical statistic tools were needed to create a survey of selected parameters of the data file. Determining intervals for individual statistic features is to some extent carried out "by feeling". With regard to it, there was done the sensitivity analysis within which was investigated the influence of minor changes in the number of intervals on apportionment of percent occurrences of monitored statistical features (intervals were determined "by feeling" and based on recommendation from technical literature). For investigation of statistical features were used description statistics and also methods of statistical induction. The information used from technical literature and the interpretation of partial results and conclusions concerning individual sections of the thesis are provided in the section Discussion. The thesis demonstrated that the empirical apportionment of the number of traffic accidents and costs on South Bohemia Fire Rescue Service's interventions in traffic accidents can be considered as standard. Therefore it is correct to use theoretical findings associated with standard apportionment to work with those data. Also the thesis demonstrated that the number of traffic accidents and costs associated with South Bohemia Fire Rescue Service's interventions not only does not decrease but on the contrary increases. It was demonstrated that there is present very high positive correlation between numbers of the traffic accidents and the costs related to South Bohemia Fire Rescue Service's interventions in single months of the monitored time period. This brings us to a conclusion that the increase of costs related to interventions is caused mainly by the increase of the number of traffic accidents where the units of Fire Rescue Service intervene.
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Statistic Characteristic Function and its Usage for Digital Signal Processing
Mžourek, Zdeněk ; Mekyska, Jiří (referee) ; Smékal, Zdeněk (advisor)
Aim of this thesis is provide basic information about characteristic function used in statistic and compare its properties with the Fourier transform used in engineering applications. First part of this thesis is theoretical, there are discussed basic concepts, their properties and mutual relations. The second part is devoted to some possible applications, for example normality testing of data or utilization of the characteristic function in independent component analysis. The first chapter describes the introduction to probability theory for the unification of terminology and mentioned concepts will be used to demonstrate the interesting properties of characteristic function. The second chapter describes the Fourier transform, definition of characteristic function and their comparison. The second part of this text is devoted to applications the empirical characteristic function is analyzed as an estimate of the characteristic function of examined data. As an example of application is describe a simple test of normality. The last part deals with more advanced applications of characteristic function for methods such as independent component analysis.
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Comparison of the Bayesian and Frequentist Approach to the Statistics
Hakala, Michal ; Karel, Tomáš (advisor) ; Malá, Ivana (referee)
The Thesis deals with introduction to Bayesian statistics and comparing Bayesian approach with frequentist approach to statistics. Bayesian statistics is modern branch of statistics which provides an alternative comprehensive theory to the frequentist approach. Bayesian concepts provides solution for problems not being solvable by frequentist theory. In the thesis are compared definitions, concepts and quality of statistical inference. The main interest is focused on a point estimation, an interval estimation, a statistical hypothesis testing and finally a stochastic convergence. The contribution of the thesis is a brief compilation of the Bayesian theory and introducing new arguments and examples in the discussion between proponents of the Bayesian and frequentist approach to statistics.
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The statistical investigation of time and economical development of the extraordinary incident kind selected
SMOLÍK, Martin
This dissertation called The Statistical Investigation of Time and Economical Development of the Extraordinary Incident Kind Selected deals with traffic accidents on roads within the Czech Republic. The goal of this work is to investigate a time and economical connection of traffic accidents. The theoretical part specifies basic terms which are related to road transport in the Czech Republic and which are mainly based on valid laws in the field of road transportation. There is also deeply analysed the term "traffic accident" which has to gain specific features in order to be classified as a traffic accident. Subsequently, there are also presented and discussed the most common causes of accidents. Impacts of economic damage to the state budget were described by a certified methodology for calculating losses from a traffic accident rate on roads. Within possibilities of a bigger kind of an extraordinary incident during which emergency could be announced, there is described a system of crisis management in transport and an operation of Crisis Management Department of the Ministry of Transport. In the last section of the theoretical part there are summarized the basic methods of descriptive and mathematical statistics which were used for processing of the practical part of the dissertation. In the practical part three hypotheses were being tested based on the collected data, which was drawn from statistical yearbooks of a traffic accident rate published on the website of the Police of the Czech Republic. The methodology provides basic methods of descriptive and mathematical statistics to whom the gained data has been subjected. To verify the hypothesis H2 the amounts of damage per a time unit have a distribution close to the normal distribution. It was used within the mathematical statistics of nonparametric testing of hypothesis. Through the non-parametric testing was allowed to prove normality of damage amount in traffic accidents in the period 2009 - 2013. For verification of the hypothesis H1 number of traffic accidents and the amount of damage are positively correlated and hypotheses H3 time development of traffic accidents per one time unit can be expressed by linear regression with negative correlation. Simple linear and correlation dependence was used in the context of mathematical statistics. The aim of the hypotheses H1 and H3 mentioned above was to find out a kind of regression, depending on given statistical features, to find suitable regression function and to determine tightness of correlation using an appropriate coefficient. A negative correlation coefficient was calculated for the hypothesis H1 so it was rejected. This result is possible to comment on the fact that, although there is less material damage, the number of incidents in particular time units does not reflect this fact. For the hypotheses H3 we can conclude that traffic accidents have been declining in a longer time interval and this leads to fulfilment of the goal of the national road safety strategy 2011 - 2020. For the short time period 2009 - 2013 it is not possible to come to the same conclusion and the hypotheses H3 has to be rejected. In the context of a deeper research of the impact of economic damage to our state, it would be good to work e.g. with the amount of money which insurance companies have to pay to persons involved in an accident. We could also work with the amount of costs which the state has to spend on activities of organs of emergency service for dealing with all consequences of any emergencies associated with an accident. Determination of the total amount of economic damage from a traffic accident rate and from a number of traffic accidents helps us to realize the seriousness of this issue. Just as other indicators of traffic safety, economic damage and a number of traffic accidents are important indicators of prevention and effectiveness of traffic-safety measures.
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